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Rudar Kakanj vs Posušje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
0 – 2
Posušje
Posušje
3/27/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudar Kakanj38%
×Draw30%
Posušje31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.09
Posušje
0.95

Rudar Kakanj creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.71
Posušje
1.00

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Posušje
0.47

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
69%
Rudar Kakanj or Posušje
70%
Draw or Posušje
62%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
16%
Posušje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
66%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
30%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
10%
Posušje 1+ goals
61%
Posušje 2+ goals
25%
Posušje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
55%
Posušje (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Posušje away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.71 + Posušje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Posušje attack 1.00 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
38%
level
30%
Posušje scores more
31%

Rudar Kakanj at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Rudar Kakanj 0–2 Posušje

Posušje beat Rudar Kakanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.