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Posušje vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
1 – 0
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
8/29/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Posušje65%
×Draw21%
Rudar Kakanj14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.93
Rudar Kakanj
0.75

Posušje creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Posušje
2.27
Rudar Kakanj
0.97

allows per match

Posušje
0.53
Rudar Kakanj
1.58

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
86%
Posušje or Rudar Kakanj
79%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
35%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
40%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
85%
Posušje 2+ goals
57%
Posušje 3+ goals
30%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
53%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
17%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
83%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 2.27 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.97 + Posušje defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Posušje scores more
65%
level
21%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
14%

Posušje at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Posušje 1–0 Rudar Kakanj

Posušje beat Rudar Kakanj 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.