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Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
FT
1 – 4
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
9/27/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie35%
×Draw23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.55
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.72

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.19
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.81
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw
58%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
77%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
65%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
17%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
79%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
46%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
20%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
51%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
45%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
35%
level
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
42%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1–4 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 1 Maja in Wysokie Mazowieckie.