Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3–1 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

FT

3 – 1

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

4/21/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki60%

×Draw21%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia T. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchRuch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.02

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

2.00

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.02

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 96% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

1.77

creates per match

0.78

1.26

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.77

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

0.78

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.26

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw

81%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

79%

Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

40%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

36%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

86%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

59%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

32%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

64%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

27%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

76%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

60%

level

21%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

19%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff