Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1–1 Kutno: Result & Stats

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

FT

1 – 1

Kutno

8/23/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie35%

×Draw24%

Kutno42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch Wysokie MazowieckieExpected goals in this matchKutno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.63

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.47

Kutno

1.63

Kutno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 36 away

1.19

creates per match

1.44

1.81

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.19

Kutno

1.44

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.81

Kutno

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Kutno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw

58%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Kutno

76%

Draw or Kutno

65%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

16%

Kutno wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

77%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

43%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

18%

Kutno 1+ goals

80%

Kutno 2+ goals

48%

Kutno 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

45%

Kutno (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kutno attack 1.44 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

35%

level

24%

Kutno scores more

42%

Kutno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff