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Kutno vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Kutno
Kutno
FT
3 – 1
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
4/3/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kutno56%
×Draw23%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kutno
1.88
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.09

Kutno creates 72% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kutno
1.53
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Kutno
1.41
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kutno or draw
78%
Kutno or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
77%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
44%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+
32%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals
85%
Kutno 2+ goals
56%
Kutno 3+ goals
29%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
66%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
30%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)
72%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kutno scores more
56%
level
23%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
22%

Kutno at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kutno vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Kutno beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kutno.