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Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
FT
1 – 0
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie39%
×Draw24%
Broń Radom37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.53
Broń Radom
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 103 away

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.19
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.81
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw
63%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Broń Radom
76%
Draw or Broń Radom
61%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
19%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
78%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
45%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
20%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
77%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
44%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
51%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.53

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
39%
level
24%
Broń Radom scores more
37%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie vs Broń Radom

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie beat Broń Radom 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion 1 Maja in Wysokie Mazowieckie.