Broń Radom 2–2 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Broń Radom

FT

2 – 2

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

11/21/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Broń Radom57%

×Draw23%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broń RadomExpected goals in this matchRuch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.02

Broń Radom

1.85

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.02

Broń Radom creates 81% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

1.48

creates per match

0.78

1.25

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Broń Radom

1.48

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

0.78

allows per match

Broń Radom

1.25

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw

79%

Broń Radom or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

77%

Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

43%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+

33%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals

84%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

55%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

28%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

64%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

27%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

73%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Broń Radom scores more

57%

level

23%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

21%

Broń Radom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff