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Ruch Chorzów vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
3 – 0
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3/6/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ruch Chorzów78%
×Draw13%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
3.14
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.03

Ruch Chorzów creates 205% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
3.17
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
0.78
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
91%
Ruch Chorzów or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
87%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
22%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
59%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
95%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
81%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
59%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
64%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
28%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
89%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 3.17 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.14

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
78%
level
13%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
9%

Ruch Chorzów at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruch Chorzów vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Ruch Chorzów beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chorzów.