Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2–4 Ruch Chorzów

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

FT

2 – 4

Ruch Chorzów

8/1/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica16%

×Draw19%

Ruch Chorzów65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia-Stal ŚwidnicaExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.25

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.00

Ruch Chorzów

2.25

Ruch Chorzów creates 125% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

2.00

2.50

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.11

Ruch Chorzów

2.00

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

2.50

Ruch Chorzów

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw

35%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Ruch Chorzów

81%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

84%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

5%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

63%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

26%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

8%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

89%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

65%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

19%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ruch Chorzów attack 2.00 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

16%

level

19%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

65%

Ruch Chorzów at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff