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Ruch Chorzów vs Polonia Bytom — I Liga 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
8/24/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 7Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów48%
×Draw23%
Polonia Bytom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.75
Polonia Bytom
1.31

Ruch Chorzów creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.67
Polonia Bytom
1.47

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.16
Polonia Bytom
1.82

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
71%
Ruch Chorzów or Polonia Bytom
77%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
52%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
26%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
83%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
52%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
25%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
73%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
38%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
62%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.67 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Polonia Bytom attack 1.47 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
48%
level
23%
Polonia Bytom scores more
29%

Ruch Chorzów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Polonia Bytom

Ruch Chorzów and Polonia Bytom drew 1-1 in I Liga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Śląski in Chorzów.