Polonia Bytom 1–2 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ruch Chorzów

1/17/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polonia Bytom33%

×Draw23%

Ruch Chorzów43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.70

Polonia Bytom

1.46

Ruch Chorzów

1.70

Ruch Chorzów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

1.53

Ruch Chorzów

1.40

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

2.00

Ruch Chorzów

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

57%

Polonia Bytom or Ruch Chorzów

77%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

67%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

15%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

77%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

43%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

18%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

82%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

51%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

43%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.53 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.40 + Polonia Bytom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

33%

level

23%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

43%

Ruch Chorzów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff