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Ruch Chorzów vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
2 – 2
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ruch Chorzów69%
×Draw17%
Piast Żmigród14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
2.64
Piast Żmigród
1.14

Ruch Chorzów creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
3.17
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
0.78
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
86%
Ruch Chorzów or Piast Żmigród
83%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
31%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
47%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
93%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
74%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
48%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
68%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
32%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
83%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 3.17 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.64

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
69%
level
17%
Piast Żmigród scores more
14%

Ruch Chorzów at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ruch Chorzów 2–2 Piast Żmigród

Ruch Chorzów and Piast Żmigród drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chorzów.