Piast Żmigród 0–1 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats

Piast Żmigród

FT

0 – 1

Ruch Chorzów

M. Biskup 58'

4/3/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Piast Żmigród23%

×Draw23%

Ruch Chorzów54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast ŻmigródExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.83

Piast Żmigród

1.11

Ruch Chorzów

1.83

Ruch Chorzów creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

1.34

creates per match

2.00

1.66

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Piast Żmigród

1.34

Ruch Chorzów

2.00

allows per match

Piast Żmigród

1.66

Ruch Chorzów

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw

46%

Piast Żmigród or Ruch Chorzów

77%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

77%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

9%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

67%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

30%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

10%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

84%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

54%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

30%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ruch Chorzów attack 2.00 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more

23%

level

23%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

54%

Ruch Chorzów at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

M. Biskup↳ P. Kwasniewski

90+5'

M. Biskup

90+5'

M. Biskup

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff