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Ruch Chorzów vs Odra Opole — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
2 – 2
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ruch Chorzów41%
×Draw28%
Odra Opole31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.25
Odra Opole
1.06

Ruch Chorzów creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.00
Odra Opole
1.13

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.00
Odra Opole
1.50

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
69%
Ruch Chorzów or Odra Opole
72%
Draw or Odra Opole
59%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
18%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
71%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
36%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
13%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
65%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
29%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
56%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.00 + Odra Opole defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Odra Opole attack 1.13 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
41%
level
28%
Odra Opole scores more
31%

Ruch Chorzów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruch Chorzów vs Odra Opole

Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.