Ruch Chorzów 6–0 Odra Opole: Result & Stats

Ruch Chorzów

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Odra Opole

11/29/2024

I Liga · Round 18Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ruch Chorzów49%

×Draw25%

Odra Opole26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch ChorzówExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.12

Ruch Chorzów

1.64

Odra Opole

1.12

Ruch Chorzów creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 138 away

1.67

creates per match

1.08

1.16

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.67

Odra Opole

1.08

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.16

Odra Opole

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw

74%

Ruch Chorzów or Odra Opole

75%

Draw or Odra Opole

51%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

26%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

81%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

49%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

23%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

67%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

31%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

65%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.67 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more

49%

level

25%

Odra Opole scores more

26%

Ruch Chorzów at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff