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Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
2/9/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów35%
×Draw27%
Legia Warszawa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.23
Legia Warszawa
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Legia Warszawa
1.27

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Legia Warszawa
1.21

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
62%
Ruch Chorzów or Legia Warszawa
73%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
65%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
15%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
71%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
35%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
13%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
72%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
37%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
48%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
35%
level
27%
Legia Warszawa scores more
38%

Legia Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa beat Ruch Chorzów 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Śląski in Chorzów.