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Legia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
8/6/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legia Warszawa57%
×Draw22%
Ruch Chorzów21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.90
Ruch Chorzów
1.06

Legia Warszawa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 17 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.86
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.01
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
79%
Legia Warszawa or Ruch Chorzów
78%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
43%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
33%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
85%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
56%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
29%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
65%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
29%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
73%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.86 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
57%
level
22%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
21%

Legia Warszawa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa 3–0 Ruch Chorzów

Legia Warszawa beat Ruch Chorzów 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.