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Ruch Chorzów vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
5/3/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów34%
×Draw27%
Lech Poznan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.21
Lech Poznan
1.33

Lech Poznan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 137 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Lech Poznan
1.36

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Lech Poznan
1.17

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Lech Poznan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
61%
Ruch Chorzów or Lech Poznan
73%
Draw or Lech Poznan
66%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
14%
Lech Poznan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
70%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
34%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
12%
Lech Poznan 1+ goals
74%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
38%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
46%
Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lech Poznan attack 1.36 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
34%
level
27%
Lech Poznan scores more
39%

Lech Poznan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruch Chorzów vs Lech Poznan

Ruch Chorzów beat Lech Poznan 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Śląski in Chorzów.