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Lech Poznan vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
11/4/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Enea Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lech Poznan58%
×Draw22%
Ruch Chorzów20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.04

Lech Poznan creates 87% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Lech Poznan
0.96
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
80%
Lech Poznan or Ruch Chorzów
78%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
42%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
34%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
86%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
58%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
30%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
65%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
28%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
74%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.94 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Lech Poznan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
58%
level
22%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
20%

Lech Poznan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs Ruch Chorzów

Lech Poznan beat Ruch Chorzów 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Enea Stadion in Poznań.