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Ruch Chorzów vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
8/19/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów40%
×Draw26%
Jagiellonia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.38
Jagiellonia
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Jagiellonia
1.26

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Jagiellonia
1.52

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
66%
Ruch Chorzów or Jagiellonia
74%
Draw or Jagiellonia
60%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
18%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
75%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
40%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
16%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
72%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
36%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
53%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Jagiellonia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jagiellonia attack 1.26 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
40%
level
26%
Jagiellonia scores more
34%

Ruch Chorzów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Ruch Chorzów 0–1 Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia beat Ruch Chorzów 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.