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Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
2/24/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jagiellonia53%
×Draw23%
Ruch Chorzów24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia
1.86
Ruch Chorzów
1.18

Jagiellonia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia
1.79
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Jagiellonia
1.24
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw
76%
Jagiellonia or Ruch Chorzów
77%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
47%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+
30%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals
84%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
55%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
28%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
69%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
33%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
69%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.24 · 136 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.79 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Jagiellonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jagiellonia scores more
53%
level
23%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
24%

Jagiellonia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 1–1 Ruch Chorzów

Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białystok.