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Ruch Chorzów vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
3/16/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów39%
×Draw27%
Gornik Zabrze34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.33
Gornik Zabrze
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Gornik Zabrze
1.15

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Gornik Zabrze
1.43

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Gornik Zabrze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
66%
Ruch Chorzów or Gornik Zabrze
73%
Draw or Gornik Zabrze
61%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
18%
Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
74%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
38%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
15%
Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
70%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
34%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
54%
Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.15 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
39%
level
27%
Gornik Zabrze scores more
34%

Ruch Chorzów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Ruch Chorzów 1–2 Gornik Zabrze

Gornik Zabrze beat Ruch Chorzów 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Śląski in Chorzów.