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Gornik Zabrze vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
9/15/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 8Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gornik Zabrze52%
×Draw24%
Ruch Chorzów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornik Zabrze
1.73
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

Gornik Zabrze creates 54% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.53
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.12
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw
75%
Gornik Zabrze or Ruch Chorzów
76%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
48%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
28%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
82%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
52%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
25%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
67%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
31%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
68%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.53 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more
52%
level
24%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
25%

Gornik Zabrze at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Ruch Chorzów

Gornik Zabrze beat Ruch Chorzów 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.