Ruch Chorzów 2–0 Cracovia Krakow: Result & Stats

Ruch Chorzów

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cracovia Krakow

5/25/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 34Stadion Śląski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów39%

×Draw27%

Cracovia Krakow34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch ChorzówExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Ruch Chorzów

1.29

Cracovia Krakow

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 137 away

1.24

creates per match

1.08

1.29

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.24

Cracovia Krakow

1.08

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów

1.29

Cracovia Krakow

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw

66%

Ruch Chorzów or Cracovia Krakow

73%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

61%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

17%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

72%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

37%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

14%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

70%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

33%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

53%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.34 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more

39%

level

27%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

34%

Ruch Chorzów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff