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Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
12/3/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 17Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cracovia Krakow51%
×Draw24%
Ruch Chorzów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
1.69
Ruch Chorzów
1.10

Cracovia Krakow creates 54% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.44
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.09
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
75%
Cracovia Krakow or Ruch Chorzów
76%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
49%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
28%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
82%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
50%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
24%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
67%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
30%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
67%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 137 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.44 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
51%
level
24%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
25%

Cracovia Krakow at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 4–4 Ruch Chorzów

Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów drew 4-4 in Ekstraklasa on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.