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Rubio NU vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2018

Rubio NU
Rubio NU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pastoreo
Pastoreo
9/18/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rubio NU40%
×Draw27%
Pastoreo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubio NU
1.33
Pastoreo
1.19

Rubio NU creates 12% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rubio NU
1.39
Pastoreo
1.25

allows per match

Rubio NU
1.14
Pastoreo
1.27

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par
Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Pastoreo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw
67%
Rubio NU or Pastoreo
73%
Draw or Pastoreo
60%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+
18%
Pastoreo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals
74%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
38%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
15%
Pastoreo 1+ goals
70%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
33%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)
55%
Pastoreo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rubio NU scores more
40%
level
27%
Pastoreo scores more
33%

Rubio NU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubio NU vs Pastoreo

Rubio NU and Pastoreo drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero in Asunción.