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Pastoreo vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Rubio NU
Rubio NU
J. Heinze 5'
V. Penayo 90+4'
E. Caballero 77'
A. Leguizamon 60'
C. Villagra 52'
7/13/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo38%
×Draw29%
Rubio NU33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
1.17
Rubio NU
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 107 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Rubio NU
1.09

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Rubio NU
1.21

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Rubio NU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
67%
Pastoreo or Rubio NU
71%
Draw or Rubio NU
62%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
16%
Rubio NU wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
69%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
33%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
11%
Rubio NU 1+ goals
66%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
29%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
53%
Rubio NU (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pastoreo scores more
38%
level
29%
Rubio NU scores more
33%

Pastoreo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Heinze
27'
D. Mencia
52'
C. Villagra
60'
A. Leguizamon
77'
E. Caballero
90+4'
V. Penayo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Pastoreo 1–4 Rubio NU

Rubio NU beat Pastoreo 4-1 in Division Intermedia on July 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Heinze (5'), C. Villagra (52'), A. Leguizamon (60'), E. Caballero (77'), V. Penayo (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.