Rubio NU 3–1 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Martin Ledesma

9/28/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 28Estadio La Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Rubio NU45%

×Draw27%

Martin Ledesma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

Rubio NU

1.36

Martin Ledesma

1.00

Rubio NU creates 36% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 61 away

1.39

creates per match

0.87

1.14

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.39

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.14

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

72%

Rubio NU or Martin Ledesma

73%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

55%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

21%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

74%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

39%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

16%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

63%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

26%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

62%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rubio NU scores more

45%

level

27%

Martin Ledesma scores more

28%

Rubio NU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Rubio NU 3–1 Martin Ledesma

Rubio NU beat Martin Ledesma 3-1 in Division Intermedia on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Arboleda in Asunción.

Rubio NU vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Division Intermedia: Rubio NU 3–1 Martin Ledesma