Martin Ledesma 3–1 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Martin Ledesma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rubio NU

4/16/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Martin Ledesma34%

×Draw29%

Rubio NU37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martin LedesmaExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.15

Martin Ledesma

1.09

Rubio NU

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 107 away

0.98

creates per match

1.09

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Martin Ledesma

0.98

Rubio NU

1.09

allows per match

Martin Ledesma

1.21

Rubio NU

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw

63%

Martin Ledesma or Rubio NU

71%

Draw or Rubio NU

66%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

14%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

66%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

30%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

10%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

68%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

32%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

48%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more

34%

level

29%

Rubio NU scores more

37%

Rubio NU at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff