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Rubio NU vs General Diaz — Division Intermedia 2018

Rubio NU
Rubio NU
FT
3 – 1
General Diaz
General Diaz
8/21/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 24Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubio NU54%
×Draw26%
General Diaz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubio NU
1.55
General Diaz
0.86

Rubio NU creates 80% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rubio NU
1.39
General Diaz
0.59

allows per match

Rubio NU
1.14
General Diaz
1.71

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par
General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

General Diaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw
79%
Rubio NU or General Diaz
74%
Draw or General Diaz
46%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+
28%
General Diaz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals
79%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
46%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
20%
General Diaz 1+ goals
58%
General Diaz 2+ goals
21%
General Diaz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)
72%
General Diaz (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

General Diaz away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + General Diaz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

General Diaz attack 0.59 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rubio NU scores more
54%
level
26%
General Diaz scores more
21%

Rubio NU at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Rubio NU 3–1 General Diaz

Rubio NU beat General Diaz 3-1 in Division Intermedia on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero in Asunción.