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General Diaz vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
1 – 0
Rubio NU
Rubio NU
5/15/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 7Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Diaz31%
×Draw28%
Rubio NU41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.04
Rubio NU
1.25

Rubio NU creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

creates per match

General Diaz
0.88
Rubio NU
1.09

allows per match

General Diaz
1.41
Rubio NU
1.21

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Rubio NU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
59%
General Diaz or Rubio NU
72%
Draw or Rubio NU
69%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
12%
Rubio NU wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
65%
General Diaz 2+ goals
28%
General Diaz 3+ goals
9%
Rubio NU 1+ goals
71%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
36%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
43%
Rubio NU (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 0.88 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + General Diaz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

General Diaz scores more
31%
level
28%
Rubio NU scores more
41%

Rubio NU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Diaz 1–0 Rubio NU

General Diaz beat Rubio NU 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.