Rubio NU 1–0 Deportivo Capiata: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Capiata

F. Garcete 90+5' (pen)

8/8/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 21Estadio La Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rubio NU40%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Capiata31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Capiata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.01

Rubio NU

1.20

Deportivo Capiata

1.01

Rubio NU creates 19% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 39 away

1.36

creates per match

0.90

1.13

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.36

Deportivo Capiata

0.90

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.13

Deportivo Capiata

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Deportivo Capiata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

69%

Rubio NU or Deportivo Capiata

71%

Draw or Deportivo Capiata

60%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

70%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

34%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.36 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.90 + Rubio NU defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rubio NU scores more

40%

level

29%

Deportivo Capiata scores more

31%

Rubio NU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'

F. GarcetePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff