Deportivo Capiata 3–3 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Deportivo Capiata

FT

3 – 3

Rubio NU

R. Roa 63', 53'

I. Reyes 45'

A. Oviedo 67', 62'

Valiente Jose 42'

6/6/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata41%

×Draw27%

Rubio NU32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CapiataExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

Deportivo Capiata

1.31

Rubio NU

1.13

Deportivo Capiata creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 105 away

1.43

creates per match

1.10

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata

1.43

Rubio NU

1.10

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata

1.15

Rubio NU

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw

68%

Deportivo Capiata or Rubio NU

73%

Draw or Rubio NU

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+

18%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals

14%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

68%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

31%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)

56%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rubio NU attack 1.10 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more

41%

level

27%

Rubio NU scores more

32%

Deportivo Capiata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Valiente Jose

45'

I. Reyes

53'

R. Roa

62'

A. Oviedo

63'

R. Roa

67'

A. Oviedo

77'

E. Cristaldo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff