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Rubio NU vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Rubio NU
Rubio NU
FT
0 – 3
Atyrá
Atyrá
7/18/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 18Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Rubio NU45%
×Draw26%
Atyrá29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubio NU
1.47
Atyrá
1.13

Rubio NU creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rubio NU
1.39
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Rubio NU
1.14
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw
71%
Rubio NU or Atyrá
74%
Draw or Atyrá
55%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+
22%
Atyrá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals
77%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
43%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
18%
Atyrá 1+ goals
68%
Atyrá 2+ goals
31%
Atyrá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)
61%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.39 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Rubio NU defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rubio NU scores more
45%
level
26%
Atyrá scores more
29%

Rubio NU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Rubio NU 0–3 Atyrá

Atyrá beat Rubio NU 3-0 in Division Intermedia on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero in Asunción.