Atyrá 0–2 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Atyrá

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rubio NU

10/9/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 30Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Atyrá38%

×Draw28%

Rubio NU34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtyráExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Atyrá

1.22

Rubio NU

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 107 away

1.23

creates per match

1.09

1.19

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atyrá

1.23

Rubio NU

1.09

allows per match

Atyrá

1.19

Rubio NU

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw

66%

Atyrá or Rubio NU

72%

Draw or Rubio NU

62%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+

16%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals

70%

Atyrá 2+ goals

34%

Atyrá 3+ goals

12%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

68%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

32%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)

53%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atyrá scores more

38%

level

28%

Rubio NU scores more

34%

Atyrá at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff