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Rubin Yalta vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
8/4/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rubin Yalta37%
×Draw26%
Forte Taganrog37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Yalta
1.31
Forte Taganrog
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 64 away

creates per match

Rubin Yalta
1.48
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Rubin Yalta
1.00
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Rubin Yalta+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Yalta ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rubin Yalta or draw
63%
Rubin Yalta or Forte Taganrog
74%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
63%

Winning margin

Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
16%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
73%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
38%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
14%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
73%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
38%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
50%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Yalta at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Yalta attack 1.48 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rubin Yalta scores more
37%
level
26%
Forte Taganrog scores more
37%

Rubin Yalta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rubin Yalta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Rubin Yalta 1–2 Forte Taganrog

Forte Taganrog beat Rubin Yalta 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Yalta.