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Forte Taganrog vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
4/6/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Forte Taganrog51%
×Draw26%
Rubin Yalta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.53
Rubin Yalta
0.95

Forte Taganrog creates 61% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 48 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
77%
Forte Taganrog or Rubin Yalta
74%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
49%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
26%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
78%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
45%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
20%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
61%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
25%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
68%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.53

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
51%
level
26%
Rubin Yalta scores more
23%

Forte Taganrog at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Forte Taganrog 0–1 Rubin Yalta

Rubin Yalta beat Forte Taganrog 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.