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Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Astrakhan
Astrakhan
6/14/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Avangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Rubin Yalta43%
×Draw27%
Astrakhan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Yalta
1.34
Astrakhan
1.07

Rubin Yalta creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Rubin Yalta
1.48
Astrakhan
1.15

allows per match

Rubin Yalta
1.00
Astrakhan
1.21

finishing

Rubin Yalta+0.00on par
Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Yalta ↓

Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rubin Yalta or draw
70%
Rubin Yalta or Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Astrakhan
57%

Winning margin

Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
20%
Astrakhan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
74%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
39%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
15%
Astrakhan 1+ goals
66%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
29%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
59%
Astrakhan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Yalta at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Astrakhan away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Yalta attack 1.48 + Astrakhan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Astrakhan attack 1.15 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rubin Yalta scores more
43%
level
27%
Astrakhan scores more
30%

Rubin Yalta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rubin Yalta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Rubin Yalta 0–1 Astrakhan

Astrakhan beat Rubin Yalta 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Avangard Stadium in Yalta.