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Astrakhan vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
10/25/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Astrakhan37%
×Draw28%
Rubin Yalta34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.20
Rubin Yalta
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
66%
Astrakhan or Rubin Yalta
72%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
63%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
70%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
34%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
12%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
68%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
32%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
52%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Astrakhan scores more
37%
level
28%
Rubin Yalta scores more
34%

Astrakhan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Astrakhan 2 – 1 Rubin Yalta

Astrakhan beat Rubin Yalta 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov.