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Rubin vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
3/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Central'nyj stadion Kazan'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Rubin46%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.44
Krylya Sovetov
1.06

Rubin creates 36% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
72%
Rubin or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
54%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
22%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
76%
Rubin 2+ goals
42%
Rubin 3+ goals
18%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
65%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
29%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
62%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rubin scores more
46%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
28%

Rubin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rubin 0–1 Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Rubin 1-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' in Kazan'.