Rubin 0–2 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

Rubin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Krylia Sovetov

I. Oleynikov 42'

B. Garré 37' (pen)

9/13/2024

Premier League · Round 8Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rubin47%

×Draw25%

Krylia Sovetov28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.12

Rubin

1.53

Krylia Sovetov

1.12

Rubin creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

1.23

creates per match

1.01

1.23

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Rubin

1.23

Krylia Sovetov

1.01

allows per match

Rubin

1.23

Krylia Sovetov

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

72%

Rubin or Krylia Sovetov

75%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

53%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

24%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

78%

Rubin 2+ goals

45%

Rubin 3+ goals

20%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

67%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

31%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

63%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.23 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.01 + Rubin defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rubin scores more

47%

level

25%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

28%

Rubin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

I. Oleynikov

Krylia Sovetov · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

Rustam Ashurmatov

37'

B. GarréPenalty

42'

I. Oleynikov

46'

K. Nizhegorodov← R. Ashurmatov

46'

M. Çuni← I. Rozhkov

46'

I. Lomaev← S. Pesyakov

51'

Kirill Pechenin

59'

M. Vityugov← S. Babkin

67'

Fernando Costanza

69'

O. Ivanov← N. Čumić

78'

D. Tsypchenko← R. Ezhov

78'

F. Orozco← I. Oleynikov

84'

V. Hodža← A. Zotov

86'

I. Dmitriev← B. Garré

90+4'

Igor Dmitriev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RubinKrylia

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

4Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots10

1On Target6

6Off Target2

9Blocked2

7Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

529Total Passes391

414Accurate Passes291

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov

Krylia Sovetov beat Rubin 2-0 in Premier League on September 13, 2024.

Goals: B. Garré (37' pen), I. Oleynikov (42').

Rubin controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan'.

Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov