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Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rubin
Rubin
FT
2 – 0
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rubin45%
×Draw22%
Krylia Sovetov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.95
Krylia Sovetov
1.66

Rubin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.77
Krylia Sovetov
2.63

allows per match

Rubin
0.69
Krylia Sovetov
2.13

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
67%
Rubin or Krylia Sovetov
78%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
55%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
25%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
86%
Rubin 2+ goals
58%
Rubin 3+ goals
31%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
81%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
49%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
57%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.77 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.95

Krylia Sovetov attack 2.63 + Rubin defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rubin scores more
45%
level
22%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
33%

Rubin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rubin
Krylia
Franc Artiga
Manager: Franc Artiga
Sergey Bulatov
Manager: Sergey Bulatov

Friendlies Clubs: Rubin 2–0 Krylia Sovetov

Rubin beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.