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Rubin Kazan W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Rubin Kazan W
Rubin Kazan W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
8/24/2025Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 19Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rubin Kazan W14%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Moskva W64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan W
0.75
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.88

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan W
0.83
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.76

allows per match

Rubin Kazan W
2.01
Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.67

finishing

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan W or draw
36%
Rubin Kazan W or Lokomotiv Moskva W
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W
86%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+
4%
Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals
53%
Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals
17%
Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals
4%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)
18%
Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan W at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.83 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rubin Kazan W scores more
14%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
64%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Rubin Kazan W 0–2 Lokomotiv Moskva W

Lokomotiv Moskva W beat Rubin Kazan W 2-0 in Supreme Division Women on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye rezervy in Kazan.