Lokomotiv Moskva W 3–0 Rubin Kazan W

Lokomotiv Moskva W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rubin Kazan W

3/9/2024

Supreme Division Women · Round 1Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W79%

×Draw15%

Rubin Kazan W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva WExpected goals in this matchRubin Kazan W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.54

Lokomotiv Moskva W

2.42

Rubin Kazan W

0.54

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 348% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

2.46

creates per match

0.53

0.54

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W

2.46

Rubin Kazan W

0.53

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W

0.54

Rubin Kazan W

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva W ↓

Rubin Kazan W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva W or draw

93%

Lokomotiv Moskva W or Rubin Kazan W

85%

Draw or Rubin Kazan W

21%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+

56%

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals

91%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals

69%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals

43%

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals

42%

Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals

10%

Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)

92%

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva W at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.54 · 76 matches

Rubin Kazan W away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 2.46 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.42

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.53 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more

79%

level

15%

Rubin Kazan W scores more

7%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff