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Rubin Kazan W vs Krylya Sovetov W — Supreme Division Women 2026

Rubin Kazan W
Rubin Kazan W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov W
Krylya Sovetov W
3/16/2025Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 2Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rubin Kazan W41%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan W
1.42
Krylya Sovetov W
1.25

Rubin Kazan W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan W
0.83
Krylya Sovetov W
0.50

allows per match

Rubin Kazan W
2.01
Krylya Sovetov W
2.00

finishing

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan W ↓

Krylya Sovetov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan W or draw
67%
Rubin Kazan W or Krylya Sovetov W
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov W
59%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+
19%
Krylya Sovetov W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals
76%
Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals
41%
Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals
17%
Krylya Sovetov W 1+ goals
71%
Krylya Sovetov W 2+ goals
36%
Krylya Sovetov W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)
55%
Krylya Sovetov W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan W at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

Krylya Sovetov W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.83 + Krylya Sovetov W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Krylya Sovetov W attack 0.50 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rubin Kazan W scores more
41%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov W scores more
33%

Rubin Kazan W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rubin Kazan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin Kazan W vs Krylya Sovetov W

Rubin Kazan W and Krylya Sovetov W drew 1-1 in Supreme Division Women on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye rezervy in Kazan.