Rubin Kazan 2 0–2 Khimik Vurnary: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan 2

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Khimik Vurnary

9/3/2023

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Central'nyj stadion Kazan'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rubin Kazan 249%

×Draw26%

Khimik Vurnary25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan 2Expected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Rubin Kazan 2

1.52

Khimik Vurnary

1.02

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

1.69

creates per match

1.23

0.81

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2

1.69

Khimik Vurnary

1.23

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2

0.81

Khimik Vurnary

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw

75%

Rubin Kazan 2 or Khimik Vurnary

74%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

51%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+

25%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals

78%

Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals

45%

Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals

20%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

64%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

27%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)

66%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more

49%

level

26%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

25%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff