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Khimik Vurnary vs Rubin Kazan 2 — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin Kazan 2
Rubin Kazan 2
10/29/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary39%
×Draw30%
Rubin Kazan 231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
1.13
Rubin Kazan 2
0.97

Khimik Vurnary creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Rubin Kazan 2
0.95

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Rubin Kazan 2
1.21

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Rubin Kazan 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
69%
Khimik Vurnary or Rubin Kazan 2
70%
Draw or Rubin Kazan 2
61%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
16%
Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
68%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
31%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
11%
Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals
62%
Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals
25%
Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
56%
Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Rubin Kazan 2 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 0.95 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
39%
level
30%
Rubin Kazan 2 scores more
31%

Khimik Vurnary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Vurnary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Khimik Vurnary 1–0 Rubin Kazan 2

Khimik Vurnary beat Rubin Kazan 2 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.