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Rubikon vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rubikon
Rubikon
CANC
15:00
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
3/26/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 21Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rubikon24%
×Draw24%
Nyva Vinnytsya52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubikon
1.11
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.73

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 56% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rubikon
0.77
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Rubikon
2.15
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw
48%
Rubikon or Nyva Vinnytsya
76%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
76%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+
9%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals
67%
Rubikon 2+ goals
30%
Rubikon 3+ goals
10%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
82%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
52%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)
32%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rubikon scores more
24%
level
24%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
52%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rubikon vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Match Preview

Rubikon face Nyva Vinnytsya on March 26, 2022 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rubikon host Nyva Vinnytsya at Knyazha-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.