Nyva Vinnytsya 4–0 Rubikon: Result & Stats

Nyva Vinnytsya

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rubikon

V. Georgiev 90+1'

A. Zagorulko 62'

D. Petryk 40', 24'

8/28/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 6Tsentralnyi miskyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya61%

×Draw22%

Rubikon18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva VinnytsyaExpected goals in this matchRubikon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.92

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.92

Rubikon

0.92

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 109% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 27 away

1.53

creates per match

0.67

1.16

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.53

Rubikon

0.67

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.16

Rubikon

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Rubikon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Rubikon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw

82%

Nyva Vinnytsya or Rubikon

78%

Draw or Rubikon

39%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

36%

Rubikon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

85%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

57%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

30%

Rubikon 1+ goals

60%

Rubikon 2+ goals

23%

Rubikon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

78%

Rubikon (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Rubikon away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Rubikon defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rubikon attack 0.67 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

61%

level

22%

Rubikon scores more

18%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Petryk

33'

V. Georgiev← M. Zelenevich

40'

D. Petryk

46'

D. Gromok← D. Bondar

61'

S. Ostroverkh← S. Shyshkin

62'

A. Zagorulko

69'

D. Kozban← A. Zagorulko

71'

D. Davydenko← D. Golub

78'

Y. Braslavskyi← O. Kalitov

78'

V. Chukhno← D. Petryk

83'

H. Teteruk← Y. Mogil

83'

O. Blyzno← A. Umanets

90+1'

V. Georgiev

Nyva

Rubikon

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zagorulko

Manager: V. Tsytkin

33'▲V. Georgiev←▼M. Zelenevich

46'▲D. Gromok←▼D. Bondar

69'▲D. Kozban←▼A. Zagorulko

78'▲Y. Braslavskyi←▼O. Kalitov

78'▲V. Chukhno←▼D. Petryk

Nyva Vinnytsya substitutes

GeorgievGromokKozbanBraslavskyiChukhno

Manager: V. Kuryata

61'▲S. Ostroverkh←▼S. Shyshkin

71'▲D. Davydenko←▼D. Golub

83'▲H. Teteruk←▼Y. Mogil

83'▲O. Blyzno←▼A. Umanets

Rubikon substitutes

OstroverkhDavydenkoTeterukBlyzno